Good morning everyone,

Welcome back! We’ve got a lot to unpack this week so let’s dive in.

In today’s edition: President Biden is now enduring more heat from both sides of the political aisle after his NATO summit mistakes. President Trump reveals his VP shortlist. Democratic donors to a super PAC are reportedly holding $90 million in contributions hostage. Trump maintains national polling lead over Biden.

• Biden’s Big Mistakes at NATO

• Trump Teases VP Pick

• Democratic Donations Allegedly Shelved

• Trump Holds National Lead in Polls

Biden’s Big Mistakes at NATO

July 12th, 2024 - The pressure has now amplified for Joe Biden with his latest public appearance. During the recent NATO summit in Washington, D.C., the President faced notable negative attention due to a series of verbal errors. These errors included addressing Zelensky as Putin and calling out Trump as his Vice President. These incidents have added additional hurdles for his campaign along with the debate held with Trump two weeks prior. Now, even more questions about his age and suitability for office are arising from both sides of the political aisle.

Perhaps the most striking error was his introduction of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as "President Putin," mistakenly using the name of Ukraine’s adversary, Russian President Vladimir Putin. Although Biden quickly corrected himself with a light-hearted comment, the mistake drew considerable heat from the media and bewildered summit attendees. In another instance, Biden mistakenly referred to Vice President Kamala Harris as "Vice President Trump" during his press briefing. This slip-up occurred while he was emphasizing his confidence in Harris's qualifications for the presidency, leading to a moment of confusion before he corrected himself. Senior Biden officials were noticeably apprehensive when he made this statement. Moreover, Biden made an additional blunder when he stated that he relied on his “commander in chief” when referring to his chief of staff. This gaffe drew additional confusion to the error prone night. Putting aside the conspicuous name gaffes, Biden switched directions in the middle of his sentences at times and tripped over many of his words throughout his press briefing.

Mixed reactions came with Biden’s remarks. Presidents with heavy sway, including Emmanuel Macron (President of France) and Olaf Scholz (German Chancellor), went to Biden’s side, suggesting that such slips of the tongue are not uncommon and should not overshadow his leadership capabilities. Scholz, in particular, noted that verbal errors are a part of public speaking and should be viewed with leniency. Conversely, a growing number of Democratic lawmakers have publicly urged Biden to reconsider his re-election bid. Notably, US House Democrats like Representative Scholten (MI) are calling for Biden to step aside to allow for another candidate. As of Friday evening, there are currently 20 Democrats within the US House that are calling for Biden to drop out of the race.

Trump Teases VP Pick

July 12th, 2024 - The 45th US President has made a teasing announcement on Friday when he named his contenders for the VP spot. Marco Rubio, J.D. Vance, Doug Burgum, and Tim Scott. With the exception of former governor Doug Burgum (67 years old), all are United States Senators who span in age from 39 (Vance) to 58 (Scott).

Each of the finalists brings unique advantages and potential challenges. Rubio's political experience and strong support bases are significant assets, but his residency poses a constitutional hurdle. Under a clause in the 12 amendment, you cannot have a President and VP claim residency in the same state if you want delegates from that state. Considering Rubio is a current Florida Senator, it would probably require Trump to claim a different residency. Burgum's business background and gubernatorial experience are strengths, though his strict stance on abortion could be a dealbreaker. Scott's media presence has made a substantial positive impression on Trump, but that does not mean it will equate to a de-facto blessing for potentially holding the nation’s highest office. JD Vance is by far the least experienced politician on the list and in spite of that bipartisan criticism, Trump may view this as the ultimate legacy play as the next 2-3 political cycles come into the picture.

Trump's approach to publicly naming his running mate has been guided by low-key hints as opposed to grand gestures within the past few months. Contrary to his subdued public approach to naming a VP, he has likened the behind closed doors process of selection to a refined version of his former reality TV show, "The Apprentice." The highly recognizable show parallel drives home two points. One, the final selection will be the result of a culling process. Two, the actual announcement will be anything but subdued. This method of announcement has kept the public at large, and his potential picks in suspense, adding to the intrigue surrounding the announcement. Theatrics aside, Trump made note that his decision will be driven by gut feeling rather than strict political strategy.

Democratic Donations Allegedly Shelved

July 12th, 2024- According to a report from the New York Times, several large Democratic donors are reportedly reconsidering their financial support for President Joe Biden's re-election campaign. According to sources familiar with the situation, these donors are contemplating withholding up to $90 million from the pro-Biden super PAC, Future Forward, if Biden decides to remain on the 2024 ticket.

This development, while significant, remains speculative and has not been officially confirmed by any of the parties involved. The potential withholding of funds highlights the increasing concerns within some Democratic circles about Biden's viability as a candidate for a second term. These concerns are fueled by his age, approval ratings, and the perceived need for fresh leadership to energize the party base and attract undecided voters.

The donors in question are described as influential figures within the Democratic Party, whose contributions are crucial for the super PAC's operations and campaign efforts. Future Forward, which played a $151 million dollar role in Biden's 2020 victory, relies heavily on these large donations to fund advertising campaigns, voter outreach, and other essential activities that support Democratic candidates across the country.

If the reported withholding of funds materializes, it could pose a significant challenge for Biden's campaign, forcing the super PAC to seek alternative funding sources. However, it is important to note that this is still based on one report and has not been confirmed by the super PAC or any other party involved.

Trump Holds National Lead in Polls

July 11th, 2024 - With the new polls that have been published in recent days, former President Trump has maintained his lead over President Biden. A 2.9 point lead has changed slightly downward from the 3.3 point lead he held the week prior.

The polling data presents a pleasant picture for Trump and a challenging landscape for President Biden. Trump’s consistent polling advantage, driven by solid support among independent voters and higher voter motivation among Republicans, underscores the lively spirit within the Trump campaign. Contrarily, Biden’s campaign has been working to show that his age and performance aren’t major issues, but the majority of voters at a national level are not holding that belief at this time. The financial hesitation from major Democratic donors, who are not deploying their significant leverage may also complicate the picture in the months to come.

• Mauritania’s Ghazouani wins presidential election - Bianca Bridger

• Ramstein Flag 24 NATO exercises in Greece - Konstantinos K

• Understanding Hezbollah Part I: Hezbollah’s origins and ideology - Sebastien Gray

• North Korea convenes 8th plenary session - Joaquin Camarena

• Japanese Diet enacts political funds reform - Joshua Paulo

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