(A)Political Newsletter- Volume 17

(A)Political Newsletter - U.S. Political News & Election Updates

Good morning everyone,

Let’s dive right in today.

In today’s edition:

  • Stock Watching

  • Trump Leads Biden in 5 Battleground States

  • Takeaways from the Third Republican Debate

  • Joe Manchin not Running in 2024, Scrambling Senate Race for Democrats


  • Representative Pete Sessions added $1.6M for blimp research to a bill several years ago.

    • He sent the money to a tiny company that had no experience with blimps.

    • Why? Maybe because Sessions' former aide was working as a lobbyist for the company. Sessions was not investigated.

  • Representative Pete Sessions sold off many of the stocks in his portfolio.

    • He disclosed 20 stock trades, all of which were sales.

    • He sold up to $1.6M worth of stocks.

    • In 2017, Sessions tried to dismantle the Office of Congressional Ethics.

  • Senator John Boozman just disclosed a sale of his whole position in AES Corporation stock, $AES.

    • AES is a utility and power generation company.

    • Boozman sits on the Senate Subcommittee on Rural Development and Energy.

  • Senator Richard Blumenthal has disclosed sales of up to $150K of Robinhood stock, $HOOD.

    • Blumenthal sits on the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Consumer Rights.

    • He sold on June 29th, which is the same day that the EU tentatively banned payment for order flow.

  • Senator Josh Hawley just attacked corporate money in politics.

    • @HawleyMO: "They successfully shut down every meaningful piece of legislation every year"

    • Last week, Hawley proposed a bill to ban corporate campaign contributions. 

  • Representative Katherine Clark disclosed purchases of up to $1M of US Treasury Notes today.

    • This was the largest move we have seen from her in over a year.

  • The United States is planning a $320 million weapons transfer to Israel.

    • Last week, Senator Markwayne Mullin disclosed a purchase of Raytheon stock, $RTX.

    • Mullin sits on the Senate Committee on Armed Services.

    • $RTX is up 17% since his purchase.

  • U.S. Representative Maria Elvira Salazar sold stock in NextEra Energy Partners, $NEP, on April 23rd.

    • Since then, $NEP has fallen over 56%.

  • The House Ethics Committee is in charge of enforcing the STOCK Act.

    • Representative John Rutherford is a member of the committee.

    • He has violated the STOCK Act over 150 times.

    • He bought Raytheon stock on the day Russia invaded Ukraine.

    • He has not been investigated.

Be on the Lookout:

Some members of Congress are becoming increasingly verbal over banning Congressional stock trades. Senators and Representatives have both been increasingly scrutinized for their trades that pre-date the announcement of major events such as a weapons package to Israel.

Trump Leads Biden in Almost Every Battleground State


November 10, 2023: Former President Donald Trump is doing well in the polls as the New York Times has announced that he is leading President Biden in nearly every battleground state. He is leading by margins of 4-10% in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Surveys conducted across each of these states have reflected citizens' dissatisfaction with how Biden has handled the economy, among other things.

Trump has not appeared at any of the Republican debates and still holds a large lead over all of his opponents. Earlier this week, former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out of the race due to his low numbers. The second most popular candidate is Ron DeSantis who is polling just at 14% followed by Nikki Haley at 8%. At this rate, Trump will remain the Republican front-runner come election time next year.

The Siena polls show that a majority of voters have been personally hurt by Biden’s policies which has also hurt many of the demographic groups that Biden won by a landslide in 2020. Black voters are polling at 22% in favor of President Trump which are some of the largest numbers a Republican candidate has ever seen.

Another major concern for voters is President Biden’s age. Turning 81 soon, being the oldest President in American history has voters doubting his ability to lead the country. These numbers will likely change as we approach election year, but the early polls heavily favor President Trump in many key states.

Takeaways from the Third Republican Debate

PC: Daniel Strauss/CNN

November, 9 2023: The third Republican debate took place in Ron DeSantis’ home state where Republican candidates hashed out issues like aid to Ukraine, abortion, electoral failures, and China. Trump was the most notable absence as he chose to rally his supporters a few miles away.

Nikki Haley started the night by declaring her vision for the future of America as an interventionist in global affairs, starkly contrasting Trump’s “America first” policies. Haley backed Ukraine, supported military strikes against Iran, and professed “whatever they need, whenever they need it” when asked about Israel.

DeSantis was not very outspoken as he has once again decided to take another safe position. In the beginning, he was confident that he was a better choice than President Trump. DeSantis pointed out Trump’s promise of “draining the swamp” and winning for Republicans, even as the party has endured years of losses in the Senate, House, and the Presidency. Earlier in the week, DeSantis received an endorsement from Governor Kim Reynolds in Iowa, but he did not mention it at the debate.

With Trump’s absence, the five remaining candidates have had to find other ways to spar over policy, mostly attacking themselves instead of the former President. Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley got into a heated debate over tiktok where Vivek mentioned Nikki’s own daughter was on the app, to which Haley responded with “Leave my daughter out of your voice” followed by “You’re just scum”. Ramaswamy has been pro-Trump for most of his policy points, including his attacks on the media and the head of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel.

Tim Scott and Chris Christie did not make many motions throughout the debate. Christie was aggressively going after Trump as he has done in the last two debates. Tim Scott took the same platform claiming America is a nation in need of spiritual healing. Both Christie's and Scott’s numbers have hardly changed, with Scott barely qualifying to attend the debate.

Joe Manchin not Running in 2024, Scrambling Senate Race for Democrats


November, 10, 2023: As news surfaces that Joe Manchin, a prominent figure in the Senate, has decided not to run for re-election in 2023, the political landscape is bound to witness significant ripples in the upcoming 2024 elections. Manchin's absence creates a void that impacts the Democratic Party profoundly. Known for his moderate stance, Manchin often played a pivotal role as a swing vote in a closely divided Senate. His decisions often influenced the passage or blockage of critical legislation, especially around contentious issues such as voting rights, climate policy, and social spending bills. With his departure, the Democrats may face a tougher battle for maintaining a majority in the Senate, potentially reshaping the power dynamics within the chamber.

Manchin's absence also introduces a shift in the strategies and policies the Democratic Party might adopt for the 2024 elections. Without his pivotal position and influence, the party might need to reconfigure its approach to appeal to a broader base, balancing the interests of moderate and progressive factions. This move could potentially impact the selection of candidates and the formulation of policy agendas, as the Democrats aim to retain control in the Senate. Moreover, it might prompt a recalibration of electoral strategies, focusing on mobilizing voters in key battleground states where Manchin's influence was significant in the past.

Furthermore, the vacuum created by Manchin's decision not to run might invigorate the Republican Party. With his absence, the GOP sees an opportunity to capitalize on potential divisions within the Democratic Party, aiming to secure more Senate seats and potentially tip the balance of power in their favor. This change could significantly influence the political landscape, affecting the passage of legislation and the ability of the sitting president to advance their agenda. Manchin's departure undeniably marks a pivotal moment in the forthcoming elections, ushering in a phase of uncertainty and strategic recalibration for both major political parties.

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