(A)Political Newsletter - Volume 40

(A)Political Newsletter - Volume 40

Author

Alexander Korfiatis
April 29, 2024

Good morning everyone,

Apologies for the lateness on this issue, but welcome back to Volume 40 of the (A)Political Newsletter! We have grown so much since we started; it’s hard to believe it’s been over 40 weeks. Let’s get right in. This week, protests grew across college campuses nationally, dominating media headlines. President Biden has also had a good week, where polling shows he is gaining on former President Trump and has some of his progressive voters garnering enthusiasm for his candidacy. Finally, Pennsylvania had its primaries, setting up multiple matchups and warning signs for former President Trump and Biden in the suburbs.

In today’s edition:

  • Quiver Quantitative Stock Watcher

  • Protests engulf many college campuses and Congress responds

  • President Biden rises in polling, in a dead-heat with Trump

  • Pennsylvania indicates major issues for Trump and Biden

CONGRESSIONAL STOCK WATCHER

  • Michael Burry just filed a portfolio update.

    • He has opened a $1.6B position betting against the market.

    • $886M in $SPY puts and $738M in $QQQ puts.

  • We just got an update on AOC's financial holdings.

    • She disclosed less than $60K in assets, and up to $50K in student loan debt.

    • When she first entered Congress in 2019, she had less than $45K in assets, and up to $50K in student loan debt.

  • Renaissance Technologies has filed an update on its portfolio holdings.

    • RenTech was founded by the mathematician Jim Simons and is arguably the most successful hedge fund in history.

    • There were some massive changes

  • Senator Sheldon Whitehouse is buying gold.

    • He just disclosed a purchase of the SPDR Gold Trust, $GLD.

    • Whitehouse sits on the Senate Finance Subcommittee on Taxation and IRS Oversight.

  • We got an update on Senator Jon Ossoff’s financial holdings recently.

    • The majority of his portfolio is in a blind trust worth up to $5M.

    • He has up to $205K in various mutual funds, $100K in the bank, and $15K in State of Israel foreign bonds.

  • Update on Representative Daniel Meuser’s financial holdings.

    • He has up to $340K in bank stocks. I caught this wild clip of Meuser earlier this year.

    • He thinks that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau isn't doing enough to serve the banks.

  • U.S. Steel, $X, is reportedly eyeing a potential sale after receiving several unsolicited bids.

    • Members of WallStreetBets are speculating that Elon Musk is acquiring the $5B company just for its stock ticker.

    • $X is up 26% in pre-market trading.

  • President Biden just announced that he is awarding $1.2B to carbon capture projects.

    • Occidental Petroleum is the big winner from this.

  • Rep. Matt Gaetz appears to have violated the STOCK Act.

    • We just received his annual financial disclosure, which revealed a sale of stock in “Caregivers Inc."

    • This sale was not previously disclosed. We found that Caregivers Inc. had $480K in PPP loans forgiven.

Protests Grow Across U.S. Campuses, Congress, Administrations Respond

(Photo - Adam Gray/NYT)

April 25, 2024 - Across the United States, campuses have been seeing increased protests over the Israel-Gaza conflict, with some elite institutions pushing back against the disruptions. The University of Southern California and Columbia University are cracking down against the protests the hardest, experts say. USC first cancelled their commencement speaker and valedictorian over her pro-Palestine planned speech, then cancelled the commencement ceremony altogether. Columbia University temporarily cancelled all in-person classes and arrested over 100 protesters. Protesters at the university, along with others such as Boston University, Northwestern, and Harvard College, have set up encampments to protest the treatment of Palestinian civilians.

Colleges and congressional leadership are responding to the outcry. Columbia called New York City police and arrested the protesters. Vanderbilt University condemned the protests, and Yale University arrested the protesters. Congresspeople has made multiple visits to Columbia, with even House Speaker Mike Johnson making a trip there, much to the university’s condemnation. Members across the aisle have called for Columbia University President Minouche Shafik to step down. The protests seem to have no end in sight, and continue to rise in tempo, according to commentators. Jewish students state that they feel unsafe on the campuses, and some large donors have stated they are pulling funding unless some demands are met.

President Biden Rises in Polling, in a Dead-Heat with Former President Trump

(Photo - Jason Allen/AP)

April 25, 2024 - President Biden’s attempts to raise his support seem to be working, as some organizations have found he is rising in polls, closing the gap with former President Trump. President Biden was trailing Trump by two percentage points, which is a change in polling from January, where he was trailing by five percentage points. This seems to be because the large advertisements the Biden campaign has been making seem to be making an impact, as well as the extensive ground outreach. Another surprise in the polling is that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., is pulling more Trump voters than Biden voters. If third-party candidates were included, then Biden would lead Trump in these updated queries.

Biden has also been making substantial overtures to the young and progressive members of his party. Axios reports that many recent political decisions are specifically tailored to them, such as forgiving more student loans and continuing to condemn Trump for his abortion policy. Biden is trying to grow enthusiasm for his run, which has stayed low but has fallen in the face of his administration's support of Israel, angering left-wing voters. Biden is trying to get them back to ensure they do not defect to either Cornel West or the Green Party, which could tip the balance in some swing states.

Pennsylvania Primary Recap

(Photo - Samantha Wong; Allison Robbert; Greg Nash; and Adobe Stock/The Hill)

April 25, 2024 - Pennsylvania had its primaries and we are going to quickly recap them. First, Eugene DePasquale has secured the Democratic nomination for the open attorney general seat and is set to face David Sunday as his GOP counterpart. In the headlining Senate race, David McCormick will be the GOP nominee to face incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey in the fall. This is a large turnaround for McCormick because he lost to Mehmet Oz in the 2022 Pennsylvania Primaries after former President Trump endorsed Oz. McCormick will now get his second chance at the Senate in a key pickup opportunity for Democrats.

Both President Biden and former President Trump won their respective parties’s nominations. However, both still struggle with dissenting factions within their core voter group. Biden is still dealing with protest votes in the critical swing state, with 36,000 writing in another name instead of President Biden. However, Trump is still dealing with a large contingent of protest voters who continue to vote for Nikki Haley a month after her withdrawal from the race. Almost seventeen percent of GOP voters cast a ballot for Nikki Haley in the primaries, showing he must increase outreach to her voters. There are higher percentages in some critical suburban counties, Axios writes. Trump must decrease his condemnation of her campaign to regain these voters, just as President Biden must try to appeal to his left flank, especially over the Israel-Palestine issue.

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