Good morning everyone,

I would slander a political candidate to make light of us being late to issue our next newsletter, but that wouldn’t be very apolitical of me. Welcome back! Let’s jump right in to what’s happening this week.

We’re testing a few different styles this week so be sure leave us your opinion on which you find the most digestible.

In today’s edition: Senior Israeli and American officials were set to meet on Thursday, but the meeting was cancelled after Netanyahu publicly rebuked certain US actions. Biden announces an executive order to grant approximately 500,000 illegal immigrants a legal status and pathway to citizenship. The latest presidential polls show a neck and neck race between Trump and Biden. RFK will be excluded from the first presidential debate between the current and former president.

• US/Israel Meeting Called Off

• Biden Announces Executive Order on Immigration

• Presidential Polling Shows Heated Race

• RFK Excluded From Presidential Debate with Trump/Biden

US/Israel Meeting Called Off

The White House recently canceled a high-level meeting with Israeli officials after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly criticized President Joe Biden. Netanyahu's video message condemned Biden's decision to withhold defense aid to Israel, describing it as "inconceivable." This public reprimand prompted the Biden administration to cancel the planned meeting, exacerbating already tense U.S.-Israel relations.

Netanyahu expressed frustration over the U.S. decision to pause a shipment of munitions, arguing it undermines Israel's security. His comments, seen as a direct challenge to Biden’s policies, departed from typical diplomatic discourse. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre clarified that only one shipment was paused and reassured that the U.S. remains committed to Israel's security. However, her remarks did little to alleviate the fallout.

The meeting's cancellation angered Biden administration officials, as it was to address critical issues like Iran's nuclear program and regional security. A senior U.S. official noted that Netanyahu's public criticism caused significant damage to the bilateral relationship, calling it unprecedented and unacceptable. Some Israeli officials were already en route to Washington when the meeting was called off, underscoring the abruptness of the decision.

This incident occurs amid growing pressure on Biden from progressives within the Democratic Party, who demand a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Over recent years, U.S.-Israel relations have faced several points of contention, including disagreements over the Iran nuclear deal and settlement expansion in the West Bank. The Biden administration's emphasis on diplomacy and multilateralism often contrasts with Netanyahu's hardline policies.

Netanyahu's criticism of Biden appears aimed at rallying domestic support and asserting Israel's independence in security matters. However, this strategy risks alienating key allies and undermining Israel's long-term interests. The canceled meeting highlights the complexities of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, as the Biden administration must balance supporting traditional allies with addressing other regional concerns and domestic political pressures.

Moving forward, both nations will need to engage in diplomatic efforts to repair the damage and restore trust. The Biden administration may emphasize its commitment to Israel’s security while insisting on diplomatic decorum. The Israeli government will need to carefully manage its approach to U.S. relations to avoid further strains.

This incident underscores the challenges of managing alliances in a changing geopolitical landscape. The U.S.-Israel relationship, while historically strong, faces tensions that require diligent efforts to maintain a robust and effective partnership.

Biden Announces Executive Order on Immigration

June 18th, 2024 - A notable announcement came from the Biden White House this week. A new immigration policy was presented that offers legal status and a path to citizenship for approximately 500,000 undocumented immigrants married to U.S. citizens.

Key Details of the Policy

• The policy, known as "parole in place," will allow eligible undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens to apply for legal permanent residency (green cards) without having to leave the country.

• To qualify, applicants must have been present in the U.S. for at least 10 years before June 17, 2024, and be in a legally recognized marriage with a U.S. citizen.

• Successful applicants will initially receive a three-year work permit and can eventually apply for U.S. citizenship after five years as a green card holder.

• The policy is expected to benefit around 50,000 undocumented children under 21 whose parents are married to U.S. citizens.

Significance and Reactions

• This is considered the largest immigration initiative for undocumented immigrants since the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.

• Immigrant rights groups have praised the move, calling it "the biggest thing since DACA" and a compassionate step towards keeping families together.

• However, legal challenges from Republican-led states are anticipated, as they have previously sued the Biden administration over immigration policies.

• The Trump campaign criticized the program, claiming it would lead to increased crime, strain public services, and deprive benefits from American seniors, though studies have shown immigrants have lower crime rates than U.S. citizens.

This executive action by President Biden aims to address the plight of mixed-status families and provide a pathway to legal status for a significant number of undocumented immigrants, but it is expected to face political and legal battles in the coming months.

Biden and Trump Locked in Tight Race

June 19th 2024 - As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws nearer, recent polling data reveals a highly competitive race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, released on June 18, 2024, shows both candidates tied at 49% among likely voters, reflecting a shift from late May when Biden held a slight lead over Trump. However, the Real Clear Politics aggregate of polls has Trump leading by half a point as of June 18th 2024.

Polling Breakdown

The poll indicates that among those who definitely plan to vote in November, Trump holds a narrow edge over Biden, 50% to 49%. Biden has made significant gains among independent voters, leading Trump 50% to 48%, although Trump maintains an advantage among voters who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, leading 48% to 41%. The data also shows that Biden and Trump are tied at 50% among voters under the age of 45, while Trump holds a slight lead among voters aged 45 and older, 49% to 48%.

In a multi-candidate field, Trump garners 42% of registered voters' support nationally, compared to 41% for Biden. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has 11% support, while other third-party candidates like Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Chase Oliver collectively pull 7% from Biden's base.

Voter Satisfaction and Key Issues

A significant portion of the electorate remains dissatisfied with the major party candidates. According to the poll, 55% of Americans are not satisfied with the choice between Biden and Trump, with only 42% expressing satisfaction. Among Trump supporters, satisfaction is evenly split at 50%, while a majority of Biden supporters, 58%, are dissatisfied with the candidate options.

The poll also highlights the key issues driving voter decisions. Inflation remains the top concern for 30% of respondents, followed closely by preserving democracy at 29% and immigration at 18%. These issues are likely to play a crucial role in shaping voter preferences as the election approaches.

Demographic Shifts and Battleground States

The polling data reveals notable demographic shifts that could impact the election outcome. Trump has made significant inroads among Black voters, increasing his support from 7% in 2020 to 21% in the current poll. This shift is particularly pronounced among younger Black voters, a demographic that has historically been a stronghold for the Democratic Party.

In key battleground states, Trump holds a lead over Biden among registered voters in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, while Biden leads in Wisconsin. These states were pivotal in the 2020 election, and their outcomes will be critical in determining the 2024 election result.

Legal Challenges and Public Perception

Trump's recent criminal conviction has also influenced voter sentiment. A POLITICO/Ipsos survey found that 21% of independents are less likely to support Trump due to his conviction, which could be a decisive factor in a close election. Despite efforts by Trump and his allies to discredit the prosecution, a significant number of Americans remain skeptical about the fairness of the judicial process, with 43% believing the case was politically motivated to help Biden.

As the 2024 presidential election nears, the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump remains tightly contested. Both candidates are vying for support in a polarized electorate, with key issues like inflation, democracy, and immigration driving voter decisions. Demographic shifts and battleground state dynamics will play a crucial role in determining the election outcome. With significant voter dissatisfaction and legal challenges influencing public perception, the upcoming debates and campaign strategies will be critical in swaying undecided voters and securing victory in November.

RFK Excluded From CNN Debate with Trump/Biden

June 20th 2024 - Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has failed to qualify for the CNN debate scheduled for June 27, 2024, leaving President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump as the sole participants. Kennedy missed the polling requirement, securing only three out of four necessary qualifying national polls with at least 15 percent support.

Kennedy's exclusion has led to legal and political fallout. His campaign filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) in May, alleging that CNN was making "prohibited corporate contributions" to the Biden and Trump campaigns, violating federal campaign finance law. Kennedy requested the FEC halt the debate until compliance with the law was ensured. While the FEC has not commented, Kennedy called his exclusion "undemocratic, un-American, and cowardly," claiming the setup favors major party candidates and excludes outsiders.

Historically, the last independent candidate to participate in a presidential debate was Ross Perot in 1992, which significantly boosted his campaign. Kennedy's exclusion means a missed chance for similar exposure. Despite this setback, Kennedy's campaign is determined to secure ballot access nationwide, claiming enough signatures for states totaling 310 electoral votes, pending verification. Campaign manager Amaryllis Fox Kennedy is optimistic about future debates, and they have invested $100,000 in TV ads to highlight the perceived bias against outsiders.

Kennedy's exclusion has broader implications for the 2024 election, with concerns from both Biden and Trump campaigns about his impact in key battleground states. The debate setup has reignited discussions on the fairness and inclusivity of the US electoral system, with critics arguing that stringent criteria disadvantage third-party and independent candidates, limiting voter choice and reinforcing the dominance of the two major parties.

• Sins and strategy: Kenya through the looking glass - Bianca Bridger

• Vietnam reclaiming land in the South China Sea - Evan Berridge

• Somalia’s path to recovery - Sebastien Gray

• China negotiating with Myanmar rebels - Joaquin Camarena

• Russian peacekeepers fully withdraw from Artsakh - Atlas

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