Good morning everyone,

Hope you all had a great 4th of July! There are more than enough fireworks to go around this week so let’s jump in.

In today’s edition: Joe Biden is now left dealing with the consequences of his debate performance. Everyone in Trump’s orbit is optimistic about what’s to come. The Supreme Court gives another win to Trump. The latest polls by RCP show a strong post debate outcome for the former President.

• Post-Debate Fallout

• Trump Camp Glee

• SCOTUS Decision

• Post-Debate Polls

Post-Debate Fallout

July 5, 2024 - President Joe Biden is facing significant fallout following a lackluster debate performance against former President Donald Trump. The debate has triggered a series of critical reactions and strategic shifts within Biden's campaign. The President's performance has raised questions about his electability and capacity to lead, particularly given his age and recent public appearances. In the wake of the debate, Biden has reportedly confided with those close to him about his concerns regarding his candidacy position. This is the first indication that he is seriously contemplating stepping away from the Oval Office. Biden's advisors are acutely aware of the challenging political landmines ahead, with recent polls showing a tighter race between him and Trump. Biden’s inner circle (including his wife and his son Hunter) is focused on upcoming public engagements to sway public opinion and regain momentum.

To address these concerns, Biden held a closed-door meeting with over 20 Democratic governors at the White House. During this meeting, he reassured them about his health following a recent medical checkup. Biden emphasized his good health, attempting to dispel doubts raised by his debate performance. One notable revelation from the meeting was Biden's decision to stop scheduling events after 8 p.m. to prioritize getting more rest. This decision, aimed at ensuring he remains physically and mentally sharp, was met with mixed reactions from the governors. Some governors openly expressed worry, but the overall stated sentiment was a positive backing of Biden in a governor-led meeting with reporters on Wednesday.

Contrary to support from Democratic governors, several Democratic megadonors have overtly stated their displeasure with Biden as the nominee and have gone as far as stopping donations to the presidential race until a new nominee is chosen. Abigail Disney (Disney heiress), Reed Hastings (Netflix co-founder), and Ari Emanuel (Entertainment magnate) have all voiced their unacceptance for the Biden ticket and wish for a new challenger. These voices join an even larger list of anonymous megadonors who have stated to various media outlets that they will not support Biden in his re-election bid. Despite the internal and external pressures, Biden has stated that he is determined to stay in the race. His campaign officials are closely monitoring polling data, aware that unfavorable numbers could exacerbate the situation. Biden’s upcoming media interviews and campaign events will now be seen as critical by his team to reshape the image portrayed during the debate this past Thursday.

Trump Camp Glee

July 5, 2024 - Trump and those within his orbit have been all smiles since June 27th. The debate marked a notable uptick in momentum, fundraising, and tone for the 45th President. Although he was perceived as even handed by commentators in both political parties on June 27th, he had some choice words to describe what lay ahead come November. He didn’t hold back from insulting the 46th President and VP Harris. It cannot be confirmed at this time whether Trump knew he was being filmed.

Trump’s war chest also garnered notable interest with a $35 million dollar raise in the immediate stretch after the debate as reported by Politico. According to the latest reports, Trump's campaign raised $111.8 million in June alone, contributing to a total of $331 million for the second quarter of 2024. This enormous gain has given Trump a consequential financial edge over Joe Biden, whose campaign raised $127 million in June and $264 million for the same quarter.

Momentum has carried through to his team and allies. The Trump orbit at large is capitalizing on Biden's debate performance by emphasizing the President's perceived weaknesses. Trump's team has highlighted Biden's age and questioned his ability to effectively lead the country. This narrative is being reinforced through targeted messaging and media appearances by Trump surrogates. Allies of the campaign have also been focusing on underscoring key issues by riffing off debate quips like the “beating Medicare” moment as well as capitalizing on takes like “I really don’t know what he just said” among other notable highlights during their exchanges. The upbeat tone being delivered by the Trump Campaign has certainly never been higher during this election cycle as the team turns their attention towards November 5th.

SCOTUS Decision

July 2nd, 2024 - In a landmark 6-3 decision on July 1, 2024, the Supreme Court ruled in Trump v. United States that former President Donald Trump is entitled to immunity from criminal prosecution for actions taken within the scope of his official duties while in office. This ruling marks an incredible note in the ongoing legal cases against Trump and the broader understanding of presidential powers and accountability.

The Supreme Court's majority opinion, authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, established that a president has absolute immunity from prosecution for core official acts and presumptive immunity for actions within the "outer perimeter" of official responsibilities. This decision was based on the principle that the separation of powers requires protecting the executive branch's independence and functionality. The Court emphasized that this immunity is crucial to prevent judicial overreach into executive office duties.

The ruling directly impacts several of Trump's ongoing legal battles, particularly those related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. The federal case led by Special Counsel Jack Smith, which accuses Trump of conspiracy to defraud the United States and obstruct an official proceeding, will now face significant delays. The lower courts must determine which of Trump's actions are covered by immunity, a process expected to take months or even years. Similarly, the ruling could influence state-level cases, such as the election interference case in Georgia and the classified documents case in Florida. Trump's legal team is likely to invoke the Supreme Court's decision to challenge and potentially dismiss these charges, arguing that his actions were within the scope of his presidential duties.

The Supreme Court's decision has broader implications for presidential accountability. Critics argue that it effectively places those who hold the office above the law for actions taken while in office, potentially allowing future presidents to engage in misconduct without fear of criminal prosecution. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in her dissent, warned that this ruling undermines the foundational principle that no one, including the president, is above the law. Supporters of the ruling contend that it preserves the necessary independence of the executive branch and prevents politically motivated prosecutions that could hinder a president's ability to govern effectively. They argue that impeachment remains the appropriate mechanism for addressing presidential misconduct.

Post-Debate National Polling

July 5th, 2024 - New polls have been conducted following the debate last week. Trump has gained slightly more momentum in the national head to head matchup against President Biden. A 3.3 point lead has supplanted his lead of 1.9 points in the previous week. That same momentum has carried over to the battleground states.

Polling Breakdown

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania state polling conducted after the debate shows even heavier lean towards Trump. Although it’s a single poll at this point in both states, a 6 point advantage was given by Remington Research in the Wisconsin race, and a 4 point lead was given by Cygnal in the Pennsylvania race. On this day four years ago, Biden held a 7 point lead in Pennsylvania while Trump now averages a 3 point lead. A similar story in Wisconsin follows as Trump now averages a 2 point lead compared to Biden’s 6.5 point lead at this point in 2020. Seeing as both of these states were crucial to Biden’s victory in 2020, history is now running in reverse with the momentum currently favoring Trump by a significant margin.

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