Good afternoon everyone,

Tides are continuing to shift in our political landscape, and I’m here for it! It’s been a week filled with VP pick intrigue, DHS drama, and geopolitical grey swans. Let’s dive in!

In today’s edition: Kamala Harris might have locked in her running mate. A Trump-appointed Inspector General is grilling the DHS over multiple investigations. A Russia-United States prisoner swap has taken place. The Biden administration has called for increased Israeli protection amid backlash over Israeli involvement in prominent political and military killings.

• Possible VP Pick Revealed

• Inspector General Claims DHS Foul

• Russia and US Exchange Prisoners

• Biden Vows Support For Israel After Divisive Military Decisions

Possible VP Pick Revealed

August 2nd, 2024 - A staffer for the mayor of Philadelphia’s (Cherelle Parke) X account has posted a video for the endorsement of Josh Shapiro as Vice Presidential nominee. Although there have been reports that this video posting was a mistake, it is still up as of Friday evening, leading many pundits to speculate the nature of the post. Considering the consequences, it could be possible that this post serves as a political “weather balloon” to test the feasibility or palatability of a Harris-Shapiro ticket to the general public.

Shapiro has gained notable traction in the past few weeks as a top contender for the VP job. Not only has he worked across party lines to enact legislation in the lean blue state, Shapiro has shown he’s capable of taking firm stances on divisive issues like fracking and support of Israel. These bold positions have not gone unnoticed by progressive groups, as a letter signed by almost 50 progressive groups called for Harris to consider other candidates as they “simply cannot afford any setbacks.”

With Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes up for grabs, the crucial swing state is in an even bigger spotlight in this political cycle. If Donald Trump carries every state he won previously, with the addition of Pennsylvania and Georgia, he clinches the 270 electoral votes needed to become President. Therefore, the likelihood of Harris picking Shapiro is far from small. The US political betting market PredictIt now pins Shapiro at a 73% likelihood of being picked as of Friday evening. No official announcement has been made, but one will likely come in the next two weeks as the DNC convention approaches.

Inspector General Claims DHS Foul

August 1st, 2024 - US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Inspector General Joseph Cuffari has accused the DHS of obstructing his investigation into the January 6, 2021, Capitol breach. Cuffari's report, "USSS Preparation for and Response to the Events of January 6, 2021," has allegedly been on DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas' desk since April but remains unreleased. This report is expected to reveal significant security failures that could have impacted both the January 6 events and the recent assassination attempt on Trump.

Republicans, including Representative Barry Loudermilk, argue that Mayorkas is deliberately withholding the report. Loudermilk contends that a thorough review of security planning and operational failures might have prevented the security breakdown that led to the near assassination of Trump in July 2024. Conversely, Democratic representatives like Carolyn B. Maloney and Bennie G. Thompson call for Cuffari to step aside, and for another Inspector General to be appointed.

Cuffari also disclosed that Secret Service texts from January 5 and 6, 2021, were deleted under the Biden administration. These messages from at least 24 Secret Service officials were erased after the Office of Inspector General (OIG) requested them as part of their investigation. The Secret Service claimed the deletions were due to a device replacement program, but Cuffari's office opened a criminal investigation.

Top Democrats have long sought Cuffari's removal, accusing him of delaying notification to Congress about the deleted texts. Despite these accusations, Cuffari has continued to highlight the DHS's alleged lack of cooperation, with DHS personnel stating they were not allowed to provide records directly to OIG without attorney review.

The Council of the Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency (CIGIE) has opened inquiries into Cuffari's office. Cuffari filed a lawsuit against these inquiries, but a federal judge dismissed it.

Russia and US Exchange Prisoners

August 1st, 2024 - In a historic move, the United States and Russia conducted their largest prisoner swap since the Cold War, involving 24 individuals. Among the Americans released were Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich, former Marine Paul Whelan, and Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva. Gershkovich and Whelan had been detained on espionage charges, which the US government vehemently denied, labeling their imprisonment as politically motivated. Kurmasheva was convicted of spreading false information about the Russian military.

The swap also saw the release of prominent Russian opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza, who had been sentenced to 25 years for treason after criticizing the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine. His release was particularly notable given his dual citizenship in Russia and the United Kingdom and his permanent residency in the US.

On the Russian side, the exchange included Vadim Krasikov, a former FSB colonel convicted of a high-profile assassination in Germany. His release had been a long-standing demand from Moscow, which had previously stalled negotiations over his inclusion. Other Russians freed included Vadim Konoshchenok, involved in a global procurement network, and Vladislav Klyushin, a suspected spy.

The deal was the result of prolonged and complex negotiations involving multiple countries, including Germany, which had to release Krasikov. The agreement displays the dance of geopolitical interests converging along with the lengths that nations will go to secure the release of their citizens. Despite the successful exchange, several Americans remain detained in Russia, highlighting the ongoing challenges in US-Russia relations. This swap, while significant, is unlikely to mark a substantial shift in the broader diplomatic environment, given the continued tensions over major issues like the war in Ukraine.

Biden Vows Support For Israel After Divisive Military Decisions

August 2nd, 2024 - President Joe Biden has emphasized his support for Israel following its recent military actions that targeted high-ranking Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. This includes the controversial assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, an act that many believe Israel orchestrated. Biden’s commitment was made clear during a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, where they discussed the urgency of the situation and the strategic importance of US support.

The killing of Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, has significantly raised tensions in the Middle East. Iran has vowed retaliation, further complicating the already heated picture. Biden expressed his concern that this assassination has not helped efforts to negotiate a cease-fire. "We have the basis for a cease-fire," Biden said, urging Netanyahu to act on it immediately. Although the Biden admin is conveying that a deal is feasible, Netanyahu has continued to press forward on the militaristic route as wounds are still fresh from the October 7th attacks.

In addition to Haniyeh, Israel also targeted Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. These actions have sparked fears of a broader conflict, with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas all threatening revenge. The US State Department has issued travel advisories, warning Americans against traveling to Lebanon and northern Israel due to the increased risk of attacks.

Despite the aggressive stance, Biden has called for a cease-fire, emphasizing the need for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. He reassured Netanyahu that the US would continue to provide military aid and deploy additional resources to support Israel's defense capabilities.

• Saudi Arabia and Israel re-enter negotiations - Sebastien Gray

• Dassault Rafale jet deliveries to Indonesia - Bianca Bridger

• Georgia marks 15th anniversary of Russo-Georgian war - Mike Godwin

• China’s peace talks in Ukraine - Matthew Dellinger

• Ecuadorian presidential candidate killed in a shooting attack - Tessaron

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